🤠🏡 Selling Austin #12

Hi y’all! Happy Friday - I am so happy you’re here!

Pay attention to what is happening with mortgage applications 📈  and the HEB effect 🤑  - this may be the next best investment opportunity in Austin.

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WHAT'S INSIDE

• 🔢 THE DATA

• 🤠 WHAT’S HAPPENING AROUND TOWN

• 👀 DEAL OF THE WEEK

• ⁉️ WHAT THIS INFORMATION MEANS FOR YOU

• 🤤 HOUSE WORTH DROOLING OVER

🔢 THE DATA

Last week we broke down the April 10th Fed Meeting.

TLDR:

• Rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon

• There may be rate increases

• Current predictions are dramatically different from just one month ago

Today, let’s talk about the effect that had on mortgage applications.

Even with average interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at its highest level of the year we saw mortgage activity increase from last week.

This suggests homebuyers and owners are concerned rates will continue to rise.

What does this mean?

Activity is growing - the market is tolerating these interest rates. It’s still to be seen when/if the Fed will cut rates and how that will impact the historically active spring and summer periods.

🤠 WHAT’S HAPPENING AROUND TOWN

When I moved to Texas I did not understand the level of cult fame held by HEB. In 2022, shoppers woke up early and waited in a line that wrapped around a new HEB store in Frisco before its 6AM opening…

In the past couple of years, we have seen the true magnitude of HEBs reach.

The arrival of HEB inevitably leads to a real estate boom. Some real estate investors’ entire investment thesis centers around HEB and their development. HEB anchors massive shopping centers in a way other stores are simply unable to.

An HEB store opening in Plano caused the surrounding commercial properties to rocket from 80% to 95%+ occupancy to, while increasing rental rates. It’s not just commercial property that benefits - residential communities spawn around HEB.

Now we’re on the same page - HEB is great and residential/commercial booms around new openings. Next?

HEB has targeted a growing northeast Austin suburb for its next store.

This could be one of the best new investment opportunity areas in Austin.

HEB purchased 20 acres within the 63-acre Manor Crossing retail center. Manor projections suggest continued population growth which signals the potential for development in the area.

🔎 Psst: Looking for investment properties? Get in early on the HEB effect around Manor.

Read more: here and here

👀 DEAL OF THE WEEK

Neighborhood spotlight: Mueller

There are only a few neighborhoods in Austin that have been resistant to the post-pandemic decline. Mueller is one of them. A masterplan community just 10 minutes north of the city - it exploded in popularity during the pandemic. It is accessible to downtown, has a community feel (best farmers market in town) and is filled with walkable amenities (doctor, dentist, HEB, emergency, food, bars, movie theater).

Real estate trends are exceptionally localized. In the past 3 years the median price per square foot (ppsqft) for single family homes (think: not attached to any other house) in Mueller was $488.

Many new listings in Mueller still sell within < 7 days on the market. Some that are priced too high, sit, and inevitably go through price cut. This property has been on the market exactly 7 days this morning, and is priced well but there is potential for a deal.

List Price: $1,400,000 ($482 ppsqt)
Kirtana’s Suggestion: $1,300,000 ($448 ppsqft) - anticipate negotiation and to close around $1,350,000 ($465 ppsqft)

The listed ppsqft on its own does not make the property a good deal. There is a premium on newer builds in the neighborhood and homes at this square footage are in demand. The newly opened and desirable Marshall Middle School is quite literally just down the block, increasing the appeal of this property.

⁉️ WHAT THIS INFORMATION MEANS FOR YOU

If you’re a buyer/seller/investor/renter or just interested in real estate - this weekly newsletter will help guide your decision making and help you better understand the market.

🤤 HOUSE WORTH DROOLING OVER

I hear you already, “it’s not even in Austin - it’s in Spicewood”

TRUST ME the drive would be worth it, take a look:

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