🤠🏡 Selling Austin #20

Hi everyone! I can’t believe today is the 20th edition of Selling Austin. Thank you for being along for the ride, I am so happy you’re here.

Pay special attention the Fed Update 🤑 and Austin’s May Data Roundup 🤠 

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WHAT'S INSIDE

• 🔢 THE DATA

• 🤠 WHAT’S HAPPENING IN TOWN

• ⁉️ WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU

• 🤤 HOUSE WORTH DROOLING OVER

🔢 THE DATA

We’ve been keeping a close eye on rates and our friend and Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell made an announcement yesterday.

Let’s get into it. 

Yesterday, the Fed announced they will not cut rates and continue to monitor inflation. Powell noted that while inflation is still high - the pace of increase has come down “significantly.”

Inflation was over 8% in June 2022 (highest since 1980s - yikes) and is currently 2.7%. You would think this would mean imminent rate cuts but officials are worried cutting rates will bring on an inflation resurgence. Powell stated that rate cuts won’t be on the table until inflation is at 2%.

Okay. When do you think the next rate cut is?

A month ago - economists signaled increased confidence in two rate cuts by the end of 2024. Now, economists anticipate 1 cut in the Fall.

Rate cut in the fall. Got it. Going back to 4% right?

Wrong. Sorry! Don’t shoot the messenger.

Fed officials believe there is a Goldilocks interest rate. A rate that isn’t so low that inflation runs rampant but not so high that we enter a recession.

This Golidlocks rate - is anticipated to be a lot higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Read our May Fed update here and more on yesterday’s announcement here.

🤠 WHAT’S HAPPENING IN TOWN

Let’s talk May Austin numbers y’all.

New listings: +22.6% YOY 

• 4th month in a row of double digit increases

• Feb had +44.8% YOY new listings

Pending (houses under contract) units: -5.9% YOY

• The number of houses pending is decreasing slightly while the number of new houses is increasing dramatically

• Pending units are a lagging indicator of sold volume - we will see a decrease in sold volume report in July

4.3 months of inventory (MOI).
psst: MOI tells us how many months it would take to sell our current inventory if no new homes came on the market and we sold at our current pace.

Looks like we are in a balanced market.

But this doesn’t tell the whole story - expired and withdrawn listings increased +30.9% YOY.

That’s high. Let me explain why this could be:
Many sellers are locked into low mortgage rates. They have a specific sale price they’re looking for and can’t justify selling otherwise. The market does not support their prices and the competition is intense with the influx of inventory. Ultimately - the listings expire or are withdrawn after failing to sell.
It’s not a true balanced market even though inventory shows that - it is a tough and competitive sellers market in many neighborhoods.

That is a lot of numbers, what does it mean for me?
Check out the next section ⬇️ 

⁉️ WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU

If you’re a buyer/seller/investor/renter or just interested in real estate - this weekly newsletter will help guide your decision making and help you better understand the market.

🤤 HOUSE WORTH DROOLING OVER

You can’t beat a view of Austin’s rolling hills. Nestled in Barton Creek and yours for $6,100,000

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